Knowing when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em is as important in sports as it is in the casino. When to pull your starting pitcher and go to the bullpen. When to hand the ball off to the running back or keep it and scamper around end. When to give your head coach/manager another year or let him/her go and try someone else.
That latter point is pertinent for the two college football programs featured in my novel, A COACH AT HEART. Stanford and San Diego State took different paths and might be headed for different outcomes.
In the early 2010s, David Shaw was arguably the best college football coach in the country, or at least the most respected. After taking over from Jim Harbaugh, he led Stanford to three Rose Bowls and five seasons of double-digit victories. His teams finished in the Associated Press top ten rankings four times.
The good times on The Farm didn’t last. Stanford’s most recent 10-win campaign was in 2016 — eight seasons ago. Not counting the 2020 COVID year, the last winning record was in 2018. After that 10-win season, the victory total dropped to nine for two straight years, followed by four, three and three. That second three-win season was Shaw’s last in Palo Alto.
Fans and observers blame the coach’s and administration’s inability to adjust to the new world of easy transfer rules and name, image, likeness (NIL), along with an offensive system that stagnated despite the presence of future NFL players like quarterback Davis Mills, receiver Simi Fehoko and tight end Colby Parkinson (it can also be argued that none of those listed above were as good as their predecessors, which relates to recruiting problems).
Suffice it to say that, no matter how good of a coach David Shaw was, and how respected he was, it was clear for several years that the Cardinal was going downhill. Attendance suffered accordingly.
Shaw resigned after Stanford finished the 2022 season with a 3-9 record for the second year in a row. Troy Taylor, a young and energetic coach with a strong background in offensive football, succeeded him and finished this year with the same count of wins and losses. Continued weak attendance nearly torpedoed the Cardinal’s chances of being provided a lifeboat when Pac-12 brethren fled for other leagues.
Arguably, Shaw and Stanford could have had their epiphany after 2019, an eight-loss campaign in which the season concluded with four setbacks in a row, and five out of the final six. Alas, they kept going and four wins out of six games in the COVID season might have renewed hope. But it turned out that 2020 was an outlier in many respects for Stanford and nationally, and 2021 was worse, with the Cardinal finishing 3-9, seven straight losses to end the season, the final five of which weren’t competitive.
Stanford had another chance to cut ties with their respectable but fading coach. Instead, he was kept for still another season, and the results were predictable. Following Shaw at this point, Taylor had zero chance to succeed this past fall, especially when the Pac-12 turned out to be so strong in its final season. Next year, playing in the Atlantic Coast Conference in a long-distance bid to remain relevant in revenue sports, doesn’t appear to be any more promising.
The Cardinal brain trust had several chances to fold ’em but couldn’t pull the trigger on Shaw’s tenure, so to speak. I appreciate what Shaw brought to The Farm as much as anyone, but the football program suffered the consequences of waiting too long and might continue to reap what they didn’t sow for years to come.
San Diego State went a different direction under head coach Brady Hoke, who was brought back for a second stint in time for the strange, fanless 2020 season. Getting Hoke to agree to retire after the recently completed 4-8 campaign might just save the Aztecs from falling into the same hellhole where Stanford resides.
Hoke, best known for four seasons as the head man at Michigan, revived SDSU’s moribund program when he led them to their first bowl game in two decades in 2010. He returned in 2019 to coach the Aztecs defensive line and reclaimed the top job the following season when Rocky Long decided to return to his beloved New Mexico.
SDSU went 4-4 in 2020, then followed it up with the school’s finest season ever, compiling a 12-2 record, an appearance in the Mountain West championship game and a bowl victory. Hoke was rewarded with a five-year contract extension. The sterling record obscured the fact that the Aztecs weren’t exactly dominant, winning six games by one-score margins and scoring more than 30 points just once in league play and getting crushed in the league title match.
Worse, their star punter and several young players were caught up in a sexual assault scandal that shook the program and campus community, even though it turned out that the allegations didn’t hold up to scrutiny.
The weak offense caught up with them last year, when they were just 7-6 and drastically lost fan support despite the opening of a glittering stadium. They scored over 30 points just three times all season.
In the most recent campaign, Hoke and company went just 4-8 and tied for last in the Mountain West, a league that turned out to be its weakest in many years. A clear decline in talent on the offensive and defensive lines, frequent botched defensive alignments, untimely penalties and turnovers combined to destroy any remaining fan support.
As the season wound down, Hoke announced his retirement following the finale. His decision, whether or not under pressure from higher-ups, saved the Aztecs’ cash-strapped athletic department a hefty buyout and allowed for a quick coaching search, which culminated around the time of this writing with the hiring of former Colorado offensive coordinator Sean Lewis.
The SDSU program was clearly in a downward spiral in 2023. The difference with Stanford is they didn’t hold ’em for too long. They made the move they had to make, even though it involved a coach who had accomplished so much for the program.
Now, Lewis has a chance to turn things around. Signing on now allows him time to recruit players who will fit his system. Next year might prove to be similar to this year, as 2023 was to the two prior seasons at Stanford, but it could also bring improvement.
One program held ’em, another folded. We’ll find out which one made the right move.
RiffelBooks 